After NFP, USD surge as Investors dump BTC and other alt coins

CoinBase is at it again. Remember, so far this year some 217 customer care related claims have been filed. Yes, 217. Truth be said, it is a huge number in such a short time span but then again, I tend to side with customers.

Customers are core in any business. Because CoinBase is the main exchange offering USD in exchange of BTC or ETH in the western world, they should bear responsibility given the fees they charge and the sentimental factors of course. Original BTC miners and traders have a soft spot for this exchange. It’s a sentimental issue I guess.

Unfortunately, over time, this trust has been breached and many times when CoinBase goes offline inconveniencing crypto traders, they site surge of new users and server limitations as their excuse. From forced outages and most recently, flash crashes, that has been CoinBase for wallet holders.

Superseding complaints though, that June 2017 Ether crash brought bad press and now US securities custodian the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating, poking around searching for answers. If you are not in the loop, on June 21, Ether digital token crashed from $300 to $0.01 within seconds and in the process wiping out more than $5B in value.

This event made some buyers millionaires but the herd were wiped clean after hundreds, if not thousands, of margin calls were triggered.

There are many theories floating around explaining this phenomenon. Going by insider information, it is claimed than a fat finger placed a single $12.5M sell which triggered margin calls as that sell order was being filled. Other explanations state that CoinBase are to blame.

First, it is likely that their algos are not designed to literally “foresee” and provide protective measures for individual investors should such block orders be placed. Secondly, CoinBase allowed users to trade cryptocurrencies on margin and since most traders like auto-trading, that big order triggered a Domino-effect burning investors.

There is a reprieve though. CoinBase said they will reimburse all those affected. They also withdrew Margin Trading thereafter.

According to Bloomberg and an official email later following these revelations, BTC fans learnt that CoinBase were “proactive” and cooperating with investigators.

However, if CTFC find CoinBase culpable, there will be a crypto-currency bloodbath. More calls for regulation will be made and investor’s valuation will be clipped for sure.



Based on the daily chart, it has been 21 days during which price action has retraced to the 23.6% Fibonacci level drawn from 15.09.2017 lows of $2972 and 02.09.2017 highs of $4980. It is also clear that price action is oscillating within a wedge formed by those resistance and support trend lines.

After 02.10.2017 inverted hammer and a stochastic sell signal dropping from the overbought territory, sellers took charge briefly but price reversed after testing support trend line at $4142. I will advise investors to withdraw from short trade and wait for an unambiguous break out in either direction.

Prospective sell zone is within $4480 and $4670 and with ideal sell entries would encompass a stochastic sell signal and a double bar reversal pattern inside that $190 sell zone range.


ETHUSD-Daily-Chart-07.10.2017After 5 trading days of consistent bearish soldiers, price action managed to break above resistance trend line yesterday. At around$280-02.10.2017 and 05.10.2017 lows, Ether found support just on top of the 20 period MA.

I will always insist that despite that break out, a follow positive price follow through and a strong break above immediate resistance line of $325 will definitely signal bullish trend. Now that there has been a mini squeeze and a horizontal consolidation from 27.09.2017, our buy and trigger levels will be maintained at $275 and $325 respectively.

A bullish break away from $325, and bulls should aim that double tops at around $400 to $425. Conversely, break below support and bears should aim at 15.09.2017 lows of $200 and $130 as their first and second take profit levels.


XRPUSD-Daily-Chart-07.10.2017There was an interesting price action development after that bullish break out and 06.10.2017 candlestick close.

First off, notice that volume spike on 05.10.2017 confirming resistance trend line break out and then the consequent failure to confirm higher highs yesterday. In fact, after testing $0.29, price reversed and as 06.10.2017 candlestick closed, price action was over-extended to the upside. Close at $0.23 was above the upper BB.

Taking into account that this is a 2.0 deviation BB where 95% of price action is held within the bands, I expect a correction back to support at $0.19 or lower at $0.16 testing the support trend line. I retain a bearish view.


LTCUSD-Daily-Chart-07.10.2017Technically, 14.09.2017 cross below main support trend line always stands out. Since then, consequent retest on 17.09.2017 and 27.09.2017 has failed to invalidate the projected bear trend.

Immediate resistance at $57 is our ceiling now that price momentum is to the downside as shown by bearish stochastics. As a matter of fact, series of lower lows along the 20 period MA-which is the middle BB and the real possibility of break below minor support trend line at around $51, where price action is currently oscillating at, means retaining bear forecasts.

Since $57 is too high, sellers should initiate a short once there is a breach below $50 and place their stop loss above 04.10.2017 highs of $53. And aim for that support level at $45.


BCHUSD-Daily-Chart-07.10.2017Just like last week, I retain my bearish view on this pair. There is an obvious divergence of prices between BTC and BCH with the USD as quote.

While BTC has been stable over the past week, BCH bears are pressing on the gas pedal. In 7 days after that support trend line was broken on 01.10.2017, BCH has shed $60 only finding reprieve at August 62.8% Fibonacci level. Judging from price action, it is obvious that USD bulls are jumping in now that the Feds and economic data are supportive of a strong USD.

I will only recommend shorts in this time frame. Suppose BCH price rise-just like BTC, first level of resistance will be around $380 before a plunge towards $290 where sellers should move their stop losses and lock in $30 as they wait for November BTC hard fork.

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