30.09.2017 – Price Analysis (BTC, ETH, RIPPLE, LTC & BCH)

Getting an ounce of objective crypto news is becoming harder every day. As the media jump in and spread half-truths, potential investors are getting scared and withdrawing. Recently, we heard that the US was trying to rebalance its swelling balance sheet but the sad thing is that responsible authorities refused to audit it.

While this is happening each and every day in BTC and other cryptos, it’s hard to understand why people should be so worried when a perfect world wide alternative is available. Like fiat currency issued in every government jurisdiction, BTC is fungible, has value and inflation proof since they are limited.

This got Chinese officials so unsettled that on Monday, 25.09.2017, BTC China and other crypto currency exchange heads received a letter directing them to shutdown all operations by 30.09.2017. That’s not all as they were also barred from leaving the country. Earlier, they banned ICOs and forbid all transactions involving BTC and other cryptos.

Well, as volatile as BTC is, it dipped from $4500 to about $3200 before bouncing back and testing resistance at $4000. Even with threats of BTC exchange closure in China, prices are still stable and solidly above $4200. With stifling regulations in the world largest mining zone, BTC and Ethereum should fall back atleast temporarily before a solution is found.

BTCUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BTCUSD-Daily-Chart-30.09.2017Depending on how you look at this pair, bulls are in charge especially in the weekly chart. Remember 2 weeks ago, price dropped from highs of about $4400 to lows of around $2970, those wild swings were kept in check last week when price moved $600 and this week volatility is even low at approximately $400. As volatility decline you will also notice that volumes are consistently low and below 20 period averages of 20K after that initial push on 15.09.2017. After 25.09.2017, price action broke above the resistance trend line at $4000 and two days later, the 50 period MA was broken above all the while the minor support trend line remains valid. On another angle, 17.08.2017, 02.09.2017 and 28.09.2017 forms a head and shoulder pattern and coincidentally, today’s stochastics are hovering around overbought zones. If the neck line acts as resistance and a bear candle or a doji forms at around $4250 with a stochastic sell signal, then sellers can initiate shorts with stop losses above 17.08.2017 highs of $4500. Immediate targets should be $3400 and then 15.09.2017 lows of $2950.

ETHUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

ETHUSD-Daily-Chart-30.09.2017Current prices are pretty much contained by 27.09.2017 $320 and $280 Hi-Lo. With first support at the 50 period moving average which was by the way tested on 29.09.2017, price action and volatility has been somehow depressed, oscillating cautiously within a $40 range and just below resistance trend line. As you can see from the chart, the 20 period MA and the resistance trend line at $310 are combining to form a strong resistance zone. For price action to break above that, considerable volume is needed and right now, volumes are below average at roughly $100K. If price is to trend lower, then the 50 period MA must first be broken with strong bear momentum fuelled by increased volumes as bears jump in. On the other hand, price continues to rise and break above resistance, then bulls should aim at $350 and then $410 which is also a double top. However, for that to happen, another buy signal should be formed at the overbought territory. In the next trading days and especially if there is a break below support at $260, ideal take profit for bears should be around $130

XRPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Like most common cryptos, Ripple price action is rebounding from the hypotenuse of a descending triangle at its 3rd quarter near the apex. Statistically, probability of a break out in either direction is high and technical indicators are hinting of a possibility of a break below support of around $0.17. Volumes are average and there is a stochastic sell signal as price tests resistance turned support-May 2017 lows and July-August highs at $0.20. With history as reference, every-time there is a stochastics sell signal above 50.0 in the secondary chart, price tends to drift lower in the next trading days. A case being after 24.07.2017, 11.08.2017 and it is likely repeat itself next week after that sell signal was printed on 28.09.2017. I will remain a bear going forward and anticipate break below support and an ideal take profit of $0.13 by end of October 2017. Stop loss a should be above $0.22

LTCUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

After a 5 month assault, LTC bullish momentum is now waning. In fact, there was a break below that 5 month support trend line as shown in the chart and chances of a trend lower is high, if not guaranteed. Because of this technical development, sellers should ramp up their bear position every time an opportunity presents itself especially if today’s candle closes as a bear and the 50 period MA acts as a resistance. To even assert a bear projection, 05.07.2017, 19.09.2017 and 28.09.2017 highs of $58 acted as a double top and tested the support turned resistance major trend line. Average declines from $58 have been $15 as shown previously and therefore a short position now should fall squarely below the support line of $45. Stop loss should be placed just above $58 as it is a statistically significant level.

BCHUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BCH is just $110 below 02.08.2017 open after that hard fork on 01.08.2017. The main question is, will it appreciate and rival BTC as the main coin or will it depreciate to oblivion? Before answering that, it looks like sellers are interested in Legacy BTC and dumping this en mass and if it continues, the first test of supports at $300 and $190 is increasingly becoming a reality. So far, the 50 period MA and the resistance trend line drawn from 19.08.2017 and 08.09.2017 highs are reliable and any attempt of close above $470 has been quelled. There is a stochastic sell signal and in light of this sellers should be in charge. Assuming bear momentum is sustained and support trend line at $420 is broken, first target should be $385 and then $300 before some sort of support is found. If not, then $200 all time low shall be hit and that won’t be pleasant for BCH proponents. On the flip side $200 is a perfect entry zone for buys-investors. Overly, I remain a bear.

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